Page of PhD Eng. Maciej Michalczak

Department of Integrated Geodesy and Cartography at Faculty of Mining Surveying and Environmental Engineering at the AGH the University of Science and Technology

Research Focus & Methodology

My name is Maciej Michalczak and I am a PhD Eng. in the Department of Integrated Geodesy and Cartography at Faculty of Mining Surveying and Environmental Engineering at the AGH the University of Science and Technology in Cracow. My PhD thesis working title was "Short-term prediction of Earth Rotation Parameters". I code algorithms in such environment like Matlab, R or Python.

Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP): Theoretical Framework

Earth Orientation Parameters serve as the critical transformative bridge between the International Celestial Reference System (ICRS) and the International Terrestrial Reference System (ITRS). The precise estimation and forecasting of these parameters are strictly indispensable for the accurate operational capabilities of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and deep-space tracking infrastructure.

Polar Motion (PMx, PMy)

Polar motion quantifies the displacement of the Earth's rotational axis relative to its crust. The kinematic behavior of the pole is predominantly governed by the following phenomena:

  • The Chandler Wobble: A free nutation of the Earth with a period of approximately 433 days, arising from the Earth's non-spherical mass distribution and elasticity.
  • Annual Seasonal Variation: A forced oscillation driven primarily by mass redistribution in the atmosphere and hydrosphere.
  • Secular Drift: Long-term linear progression attributed to post-glacial rebound and tectonic plate dynamics.

Rotational Instability (UT1-UTC)

This parameter reflects the minute variations in the Earth's angular velocity. It manifests as temporal fluctuations in the Length of Day (LOD). These variations are highly susceptible to angular momentum exchanges between the solid Earth, the atmosphere, and oceanic currents.

Mathematical Transformation Foundation

The deterministic coordinate transformation of a position vector from the inertial space to the rotating terrestrial frame is executing using sequential rotation matrices for precession-nutation, Earth rotation, and polar motion:

[X]ITRS = R2(-xp) · R1(-yp) · R3(GAST) · N(t) · P(t) · [X]ICRS

Where R represents standard rotation matrices around designated axes, and P, N denote the Precession and Nutation matrices respectively.

List of my research on prediction of Earth Rotation Parameters

The following dissemination of research highlights my recent achievements in predictive algorithms and geostatistical evaluations.

Kriging-based prediction of the Earth's pole coordinates

Keywords: polar motion, prediction, kriging, semivariogram, BLUP

The (ultra) short term prediction of length-of-day using kriging

Keywords: length-of-day, LOD, prediction, kriging, semivariogram, time series

Prediction of Earth Rotation Parameters with the use of rapid products from IGS, CODE and GFZ data centers using ARIMA and kriging – a comparison

Dynamic Mode Decomposition and bivariate autoregressive short-term prediction of Earth Rotation Parameters

Keywords: polar motion; length of day; Earth rotation; dynamic mode decomposition; autoregression; prediction

Short-term prediction of UT1-UTC and LOD via Dynamic Mode Decomposition and combination of least-squares and vector autoregressive model

Keywords: UT1-UTC, length of day, dynamic mode decomposition, autoregression, prediction

Advancing polar motion prediction with derivative information

Keywords: earth orientation parameters; polar motion; derivative time series; vector autoregression; prediction

Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign.html

Keywords: Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP); Polar Motion (PM); 2nd EOP PCC; Prediction

Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

Keywords: Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP); Length-of-day (LOD); UT1-UTC; Prediction

IERS Technical Note No. 42: Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

Global Geodetic Organizations & Data Resources

The integrity of EOP research relies heavily on robust data streams and standardization protocols maintained by premier international scientific bodies. Key reference resources include: